الرئيسية / عصير الكتب / الجزء الأول من تلخيص كتاب “حرب العملات ” تأليف :جيمس ريكاردز

الجزء الأول من تلخيص كتاب “حرب العملات ” تأليف :جيمس ريكاردز

“حرب العملات ”

التهديد الوشيك !

تعتبر حرب العملات واحدة من أكثر العواقب المخيفة والمدمرة في مجال الاقتصاد الدولي، ففي أفضل حالاتها، تقدم تلك الحرب مشهدًا مؤسفًا لدول تسلب النمو من الدول المتعاونة معها في مجال التجارة. وفي أسوأ حالاتها تؤدي تلك الحرب إلى نوبات متعاقبة من التضخم والركود والثأر، بل والعنف في بعض الأحيان. ودون دراسة عميقة، سوف تؤدي حرب العملات إلى أزمة أسوأ من تلك التي أثارت . ذعر العالم عام 2008
ليست تلك الحرب هي الأولى من نوعها، فقد شهد مجال العملات حربين مثيلتين في القرن الماضي وحده، وقد انتهت كل منهما نهاية مفجعة. وها هي حرب العملات تبدأ من جديد بانهيار العملات الورقية وتجمد الأرصدة ومصادرة الذهب وفرض حظر على التصرف في رؤوس الأموال.
ومن المتوقع أن يشهد سوق العملات حالة انهيار، فعناوين الأخبار في الفترة الأخيرة، والتي تتحدث عن انخفاض قيمة الدولار وحالات الإنقاذ التي تشهدها ”اليونان“ و”أيرلندا“ والتلاعب بالعملة الصينية، تشير إلى احتدام المعركة.

“حرب العملات ” “من أين ، وإلى أين ؟

تخوض الدول حرب العملات من خلال التنافس في خفض أسعار عملاتها، وتوقظ تلك الحروب ذكرى شبح الكساد العظيم، والذي كان نتيجة لتورط العديد من الدول في معركة خفض قيمة العملة وفرض تعاريف جمركية، مما أدى إلى انهيار التجارة. تستدعي تلك الحروب، أيضًا، ذكرى ما حدث في السبعينيات، عندما زاد سعر النفط بالدولار بمقدار أربعة أضعاف بسبب مساعي ”الولايات
المتحدة“ لإضعاف الدولار من خلال قطع الروابط التي تربطه بالذهب. وفي النهاية، يذكرنا الأمر، أيضًا، بالأزمة التي شهدها الجنيه الإسترليني عام 1992 في ”المملكة ، المتحدة“، وتلك التي شهدها البيسو المكسيكي عام 1994 بالإضافة إلى الأزمة التي شهدها الروبل الروسي عام 1998 ، من بين أزمات أخرى. وسواء كانت تلك الأزمات حادة أو طويلة الأمد، فقد أدت هي وغيرها
إلى الركود والتضخم والتقشف والذعر المالي وغيرها من العواقب الاقتصادية المؤلمة.

لذلك، فقد صُدمت النخبة المالية العالمية وشعرت بالانزعاج عندما صرح وزير المالية البرازيلي ”جويدو مانتيجا“ على الملأ في نهاية سبتمبر 2010 بأن حرب العملات الجديدة قد بدأت. لم تكن، بالطبع، الأحداث والضغوط التي دفعت ”مانتيجا“ إلى الإدلاء بهذا التصريح جديدة أو مجهولة من قبل تلك النخبة، فالتوتر الدولي إزاء سياسة أسعار الصرف، وأسعار الفائدة، والسياسات المالية، كان في ازدياد قبل أن يحل الكساد في نهاية عام 2007 . وقد دأب أكبر شركاء ”الصين“ التجاريين على اتهامها بالتلاعب بفائض احتياطيات ديون وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية خلال تلك العملية.
بيد أن الذعر الذي أصاب العالم عام 2008 يجعلنا ننظر إلى النزاعات المتعلقة بمعدلات الصرف نظرة جديدة. ففجأة، وعلى الرغم من التوسع الاقتصادي، بدأت الكعكة الاقتصادية في الانكماش، وبدأت الدول التي كانت قانعة في الماضي بنصيبها من تلك الكعكة الكبيرة في الصراع على الفتات.

المفارقات في حرب العملات 

في كواليس كل حرب من حروب العملات تظهر مفارقات، فرغم أن تلك الحروب ذات طابع دولي، فالدافع إليها محلي وهو الأزمات المالية التي تتعرض لها تلك الدول. تبدأ حرب العملات في جو من النمو الداخلي غير الكافي، فتجد الدول التي تتعرض لتلك الظروف نفسها تعاني من أزمة البطالة وانخفاض أو تدهور معدلات النمو وضعف القطاع المصرفي وتدهور المال العام. وفي ظل تلك
الظروف، من الصعب تحقيق النمو بالاستعانة بالموارد الداخلية، لذلك فدعم الصادرات من خلال خفض قيمة العملة يصبح هو الحل الوحيد لتحقيق هذا النمو. ولمعرفة السبب وراء ذلك، من المفيد الإشارة إلى العناصر الأربعة الأساسية لنمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي، وهي: الاستهلاك، والاستثمار، والإنفاق الحكومي، وصافي الصادرات، والذي يتم التوصل إليه من خلال طرح الواردات من
الصادرات. هذا التعريف الشامل للنمو يتم التعبير عنه من خلال المعادلة الآتية: إجمالي الناتج المحلي= الاستهلاك+ الاستثمار+ الإنفاق الحكومي+ (الصادرات الواردات) على سبيل المثال: لنفترض أن سعر السيارة الألمانية 30,000 يورو، ثم لنفترض أن اليورو الواحد يعادل 1,4 دولار، بالتالي فإن سعر السيارة سوف يصبح 42,000 دولار. ولنفترض انهيار قيمة اليورو إلى 1,1 ، إذن سيصبح سعر السيارة السابقة 33,000 دولار فقط لا غير، أي أن الانخفاض في سعر اليورو أدى إلى انخفاض سعر السيارة، مما يغري المستهلك الأمريكي باقتنائها، وبالتالي يحقق لبائعيها المزيد من المبيعات.

لا تختلف نسبة الربح الذي سوف يحققه البائع الألماني في الحالتين، أي أن الانخفاض في قيمة اليورو سوف يؤدي إلى بيع شركة السيارات الألمانية لمزيد من الوحدات داخل ”الولايات المتحدة“ بينما لن ينخفض سعر السيارة باليورو، مما يؤدي إلى زيادة إجمالي الناتج القومي ل”ألمانيا“، فضلاً عن زيادة فرص العمل داخل البلاد استجابةً لارتفاع الطلب على السيارات الجديدة في ”الولايات المتحدة“.
تخيلوا أن تلك الآلية لن يتم تطبيقها في ”ألمانيا“ فحسب، وإنما، أيضًا، في ”فرنسا“ و”إيطاليا“ و”بلجيكا“ وباقي الدول المستخدمة لليورو. تخيلوا أن أثرها ليس على سوق السيارات فحسب، وإنما على سوق العطور الفرنسية والموضة الإيطالية والشيكولاتة البلجيكية. فكروا في أثرها ليس على السلع الملموسة فحسب وإنما، أيضًا، على السلع غير الملموسة كالبرمجيات والخدمات الاستشارية، وفي النهاية فكروا في امتداد هذا الأثر إلى ما هو أبعد من البضائع المصدرة للخارج.. إلى السفر والسياحة.

ولكن مشكلات وعواقب تلك الأفعال التي لا تؤخذ في الحسبان تبدو مباشرة إلى حد كبير. فبادئ ذي بدء، قلما تتم جميع عمليات تصنيع البضائع داخل بلد واحد.
فاليوم، وفي عصر العولمة، قد يتطلب تصنيع منتج ما التكنولوجيا الأمريكية والتصميمات الإيطالية والمواد الخام الأسترالية والتجميع الصيني والمكونات التايوانية والتوزيع السويسري إلى جميع أنحاء العالم، كل ذلك قبل أن يصل المنتج إلى المستهلك في ”البرازيل“. وكل جزء من سلسلة التوريدات والابتكارات السابقة سوف يحظى بنسبة من الربح الكلي وفقًا لحجم مساهمته في تلك العملية. المسألة أن جوانب معدلات الصرف الخاصة بالتجارة العالمية لا ترتبط بعملة البلد الذي يقدم المنتج في صورته النهائية فحسب، بل ترتبط أيضًا بعملات الدول التي تمت بها سلسلة العمليات التجارية المتوسطة الخاصة بالتوريدات والمدخلات.

الجانب السلبي لخفض قيمة العملة

قد تجعل الدولة التي تخفض قيمة عملتها المبيعات النهائية تبدو أرخص، ولكن تلك النظرة سطحية، فقد تؤذي تلك الدولة نفسها لأنها بحاجة إلى المزيد من عملتها الرخيصة لشراء المدخلات المتنوعة، فعندما تحقق دولة صناعية نسبة مرتفعة من الصادرات، وفي الوقت نفسه تجري عمليات شراء كثيرة من الخارج للحصول على المواد الخام والعناصر اللازمة لتصنيع تلك المنتجات، تصبح عملتها لا صلة لها بصافي الصادرات، مقارنةً بالمساهمات الأخرى كتكلفة العمالة والضرائب المنخفضة والبنية التحتية القوية.
إن ارتفاع سعر المدخلات ليس الجانب السلبي الوحيد لانخفاض قيمة العملة، فمن أكثر الأشياء المثيرة للقلق في الوقت الحاضر التنافس الانتقامي بين الدول في خفض قيمة العملة، فلننظر إلى المثال السابق الخاص بالسيارة الألمانية التي بلغ سعرها 30,000 يورو، وانخفض من 42,000 دولار إلى 33,000 دولار عندما انخفض سعر اليورو من 1,4 دولار إلى 1,1 ، فكيف يضمن التاجر الألماني ثبات قيمة اليورو المنخفضة عند هذا الحد؟

قد تدافع ”الولايات المتحدة“ عن سوق السيارات المحلية بتخفيض قيمة الدولار في مقابل اليورو للعودة باليورو من قيمته الحالية التي تبلغ 1,1 دولار إلى مستوى أعلى، .( حتى لو كان هذا المستوى هو سعره الأصلي ( 1,4 تستطيع ”الولايات المتحدة“ تحقيق ذلك بخفض سعر الفائدة، مما سيؤدي إلى عزوف المستثمرين الدوليين عن العملة الأمريكية، كما تستطيع تحقيق ذلك من خلال طباعة المزيد من البنكنوت لخفض قيمة الدولار. وفي النهاية، تستطيع التدخل مباشرةَ في سوق العملات من خلال بيع
الدولار وشراء اليورو للتلاعب بسعر الأخير والعودة به إلى المستوى المطلوب.
باختصار: رغم أن خفض قيمة اليورو قد يكون له فوائد على المدى المتوسط والقصير، فتلك السياسة من الممكن تقويضها إذا قررت دولة منافسة في قوة ”الولايات المتحدة“ أن تشترك في لعبة تخفيض قيمة العملات.

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